The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revealed that the growth in demand for marine bunker fuels is expected to plateau through 2030 due to the combined effects of stricter carbon regulations and a sluggish global economy.
After a brief surge in 2024, driven by longer shipping routes caused by disruptions in the Red Sea, bunker fuel consumption is projected to stabilize at around five million barrels per day.
The introduction of a global carbon pricing framework by the International Maritime Organization, set to take effect in 2028, alongside the enforcement of tighter sulfur limits in key regions such as the Mediterranean, is accelerating the maritime industry’s shift toward cleaner fuels like biofuels, ammonia, and hydrogen.
Meanwhile, economic headwinds, including slower global growth and rising freight and insurance costs, are further limiting shipping activity and, consequently, bunker demand.
Despite a projected 10% increase in shipping activity by 2030, gains in fuel efficiency and regulatory pressures will offset this growth, resulting in a stagnant outlook for traditional marine fuel consumption.
Singapore, the world’s largest bunker hub, is expected to remain heavily reliant on fuel oil imports even as the sector transitions to greener alternatives.
The IEA’s analysis highlights a transformative period for the maritime fuel market, signaling a gradual but decisive move away from conventional bunker fuels amid evolving environmental and economic challenges.