A recent study conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine projects that extreme temperatures, primarily heat, could lead to approximately 2.3 million deaths in Europe by the end of this century if significant measures to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to rising temperatures are not implemented. The study emphasizes that while cold temperatures currently cause more deaths in Europe, the trend is shifting as climate change progresses.
Key Findings of the Study:
- Current Death Rates: Cold-related deaths significantly outnumber heat-related deaths at present, with estimates indicating around 407,000 temperature-related deaths annually across Europe, where approximately 363,500 are due to cold and 43,700 from heat.
- Future Projections: Without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and improved adaptation strategies (like increased access to air conditioning), regions such as Italy, southern Spain, and Greece are expected to experience dramatic increases in heat-related mortality. Conversely, countries in Scandinavia and the UK may see a decrease in temperature-related deaths due to milder winters.
- Optimistic Scenarios: Even under the most favorable conditions—where emissions are drastically cut and adaptation measures are widely adopted—there would still be a net increase in temperature-related deaths as global temperatures rise.
Implications
The study highlights a stark regional disparity in temperature-related mortality across Europe. For instance:
- Southern European countries will face the highest increases in heat-related deaths.
- The projected increase in heat deaths is particularly alarming for vulnerable populations, including the elderly.
The findings underscore the urgent need for robust climate action and public health strategies to mitigate the impending health crisis posed by climate change.