TORONTO: A United Nations report warns that current climate policies will lead to catastrophic 3.1°C (5.6°F) global warming by 2100, far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C (2.7°F) limit.
Released Oct 24, 2024, the Emissions Gap report reveals the alarming consequences of inaction. If governments fail to drastically reduce emissions, global temperatures will soar more than twice the agreed-upon rise.
The report compares countries’ climate commitments to the necessary actions, highlighting the urgent need for increased efforts.
In 2015, governments pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) under the Paris Agreement, aiming to prevent devastating climate impacts.
“We’re teetering on a planetary tight rope,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a speech on Thursday. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.”
According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.3% from 2022 to 2023, reaching a new peak of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Under current commitments, the projected temperature increase by 2100 remains between 2.6°C and 2.8°C (4.7°F and 5°F), aligning with trends observed over the past three years.
“If we look at the progress toward 2030 targets, especially of the G20 member states … they have not made a lot of progress toward their current climate targets for 2030,” said Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report.
Nations will convene next month at the UN climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan to build on last year’s agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. The Baku negotiations will inform each country’s updated emissions-cutting strategy, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due in February 2025.
Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, urged countries to use the Baku talks to increase action in their NDCs. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” she said.